Education Reform in Mozambique. Lessons and Challenges. Louise Fox, Lucrecia Santibañez, Vy Nguyen, and Pierre André. blic Disclosure Authorized - PDF

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blic Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Human Development Education Reform in Mozambique Lessons and Challenges Louise Fox, Lucrecia Santibañez, Vy Nguyen, and Pierre André Education Reform in Mozambique Education Reform in Mozambique Lessons and Challenges Louise Fox, Lucrecia Santibañez, Vy Nguyen, and Pierre André 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC Telephone: Internet: This volume is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to the work is given. For permission to reproduce any part of this work for commercial purposes, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: ; fax: ; Internet: All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: ; ISBN (paper): ISBN (electronic): DOI: / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Education reform in Mozambique : lessons and challenges / Louise Fox... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN ISBN (electronic) 1. Education Mozambique Longitudinal studies. 2. Educational change Mozambique. I. Fox, M. Louise. LA1986.E dc Cover photo: Child writing on the board, Primary School of Nhanpfuine. Eric Miller/The World Bank. Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc. Contents Acknowledgments About the Authors Abbreviations xi xiii xv Chapter 1 Introduction 1 The Education Challenge 2 Organization of This Report 6 Notes 7 References 7 Chapter 2 Conceptual Framework and Data 9 Education Supply and Demand 10 Data and Sources 12 References 14 Chapter 3 Analysis of the Effects of the Reforms: Outputs and Outcomes 15 Primary Education 15 Costs Affect Access Reforms 20 Effects of Late Entry, Long Completion Times 21 v vi Contents Vulnerable Groups: Orphans 24 Completion Rates 27 Secondary Education 32 Private Sector Education Is Growing 36 Quality at Issue 37 Notes 39 References 40 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 The Effects of the Primary Reforms: Econometric Analysis 41 References 44 Does Education Matter for Poverty Reduction? A Livelihoods Perspective 45 Household Enterprises and Poverty Reduction 47 Education Needs of the Labor Force 48 Notes 51 References 51 Chapter 6 Investing in Education: Tough Choices Ahead 53 Policy Tradeoffs and the General Question of Access 54 Emphasize Primary or Secondary? 58 Policy Options for Mozambique 59 Education in Mozambique: A Bright Future 68 Notes 70 References 71 Appendixes 73 Appendix A Additional Tables from the Analysis 75 Primary Education: Enrollment Rates and Factors Affecting Enrollment 75 Secondary Education: Enrollment Rates and School Expenditures 82 Appendix B Simulation of Enrollment Rate Scenarios 89 Main Simulation 89 Standard Errors 90 Simulation with Double Transition Rates 90 Contents vii Appendix C Econometric Estimation of the Program Effect 93 The Basic Model: Effect of the Program for the Exposed Group 93 The Extended Model: Effect of the Program for Each Age 97 Other Determinants of Enrollment 101 Notes 101 References 101 Boxes 1.1 Mozambique At a Glance Map of Provinces in Mozambique Education System in Mozambique The Malleable Nature of Education Supply Description of Survey Data Used in the Analysis Difficulties of Assessing Reform Impact Household Enterprises Two Common Tradeoffs in Education Policy Would Early Childhood Development (ECD) Programs in Mozambique Get Children to Start School on Time? Conditional Cash Transfers in Mozambique: A Simulation Exercise Rules of Thumb Financial Training Can Improve Business Management for Household and Micro Entrepreneurs 69 Figures 3.1 Gross Enrollment Rates in Primary Schools, 1997, 2003, Age-Relevant Enrollment Rate by Consumption Quintile, Comparison of Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees) in EP1, 2003 and 2008 (constant 2008 prices) Comparison of Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees) in EP2, 2003 and 2008 (constant 2008 prices) Net Enrollment Rates in Primary Schools, 1997, 2003, Children Attending EP1 and EP2 Schools by Age, 2003 and viii Contents 3.7 Children Not Attending School, by Age, 2003 and Dropout Rates by Education Level and Type of Orphan, Lower Primary School Completion Rate, Upper Primary School Completion Rate, Reasons for Not Enrolling Children in School by Age, Gross Enrollment Rates in Secondary Schools, 1997, 2003, and Number of Secondary Schools by Province, Enrollment in Public Schools as a Percentage of Total Enrollment, Growth in Public and Private Secondary Schools between 2004 and Marginal Effect on Enrollment Before and After the Program, by Age Group, 6 18 Years Education Levels of New Workforce Entrants, 1997, 2003, Observed and Projected Distribution of Labor Force by Education Level, 2008 and Projected Distribution of Labor Force with Increased Transition Rates at Primary and Secondary Levels, Tables 3.1 Average Walking Time to School (in minutes) by Educational Level, Consumption Quintile, and Area of Residence, School, Teacher, and Enrollment Growth, Time to Complete a Grade-Level Cycle by Age, Repetition Rates by Grade and Year, Ratio of Current School Attendance of Orphans vs. Non-Orphans, 2003 and Student Survival (in number of students) by Year of Entry into 1st Grade Households with Positive Education Expenditures (cash and in-kind) by Per Capita Consumption Quintile, Structure of Employment, Household vs. Wage, Contents ix A.1 Gross Enrollment Rates in Primary by Residence Area and Gender, 1997, 2003, and 2008 (% of population) 75 A.2 Net Enrollment Rates in Primary by Residence Area and Gender, 1997, 2003, and 2008 (% of population) 76 A.3 Children s Educational Attainment by Age in Primary, 2003 and A.4 Average Transition Rates (% students) 77 A.5 Reasons for Never Attending or Dropping Out of School (% of respondents mentioning reason), ages 6 19 Years 77 A.6 Reasons for Not Being Enrolled in School, by Age (% respondents mentioning reason), A.7 Dropout Rates in EP1 and EP2 (% respondents), 2003 and A.8 Repetition Rates in EP1 and EP2, by Area of Residence and Gender, A.9 Proportion Spent (per student) on Each Type of Cost in EP1 and EP2, by Area of Residence 79 A.10 Per Student Education Expenditure (Mt) by Type of Cost and Consumption Quintile, A.11 Comparison of Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees), (Mt, constant 2008 prices), 2003 and A.12 Perceptions of Change in Quality of Education since 2004 (% households), by Consumption Quintile 81 A.13 Main Reason for Education Improvement (% households citing reason), A.14 Main Reason for Education Worsening (% households citing reason), A.15 Gross Enrollment Rates in Secondary, by Area of Residence and Gender, 1997, 2003, 2008 (% of population) 82 A.16 Net Enrollment Rates in Secondary, by Area of Residence and Gender, 1997, 2003, 2008 (% of population) 82 A.17 Dropout Rates in ES1 and ES2, by Area of Residence and Gender, 2008 (% of population) 82 A.18 Educational Expenditure (Mt/student/year) in ES1, by Consumption Quintile, A.19 Per Student Annual Expenditure (Mt) in ES1, by Area of Residence and Type of Expenditure 83 x Contents A.20 Share of the Labor Force (%) with Primary Education, 2003, 2008, and Projected for A.21 Share of the Labor Force (%) with Secondary Education, 2003, 2008, and Projected for A.22 Share of the Labor Force with Education, 2003, 2008, and Alternative Projections for C.1 Effect of the Program for the Exposed Group, Population Ages 6 19 Years 95 C.2 Effect of the Program for Each Age, Population 6 19 Years 98 Acknowledgments The culmination of a five-year effort, this book is a joint product of the World Bank and the Mozambique Ministries of Education and Culture (MEC) and Planning and Economic Development (MPD). The project was undertaken on behalf of the Government of Mozambique and stakeholders in order to assess household demand for education and the household response to more than a decade of MEC efforts to expand access to education as a cornerstone of Mozambique s economic and social restructuring and development program. Colleagues from the World Bank, the Government of Mozambique, and the donor community provided valuable support for the study s design and implementation. First, the patient and unfailing support of the Director General of Planning, Dr. Manuel Rego, and his colleagues at the MEC was indispensable. Dr. Rego chaired the project steering committee and provided guidance and support for the study in all phases. Second, Ms. Ana Ruth Menezes at the World Bank office in Maputo, who gave the project technical and moral support, provided the connection between the field teams and the Washington, DC team. Other contributors in Maputo were as follows: The National Institute of Education (INDE) in particular, Dr. Joaquim Matavele and Mr. Flavio Magaia, who led the team of researchers who conducted the initial qualitative assessment; xi xii Acknowledgments Virgulino Nhate at the Ministry of Planning and Rural Development, who helped with the study design; Maputo office of KPMG, especially Dr. Paolo Mole, who tirelessly led the team that collected the quantitative household survey data; and UNICEF Maputo office staff, who provided technical support throughout the project. In addition to the authors, the following World Bank staff and consultants contributed to the project: Rui Benfica, Melissa S. Gaal, Anne Louise Grinsted, Elizabeth King, Phillippe Leite, Xiaoyan Liang, David Megill, Hakon Nording, Manolo Sánchez, Kennneth Simler, and the staff of the Maputo office of the World Bank, especially Adelina Mucavele. Harold Alderman, Sandra Beemer, and Patrick McEwan (Wellesley College) provided helpful comments. Finally, this study could not have gone forward without financial support from the Belgian Poverty Reduction Partnership and the governments of Canada and Sweden through their embassies in Maputo. The study team is grateful for their support, as well as the support of the World Bank through the Research Support Budget. In the medium term, Mozambique s only hope for exiting from severe poverty and welfare deprivation is an educated and productive population. The study team would like to dedicate this publication to the children of Mozambique, in the hope that through universal education, they will realize a brighter future. About the Authors Louise Fox is currently Lead Economist in the Africa Region of the World Bank. During her long career at the Bank, Dr. Fox has been known for her wide-ranging research and analytical interests. Her specialties include analysis of employment and labor markets, poverty and inequality, and the economics of social service delivery, with the overarching theme of the links among policies, outcomes, and poverty reduction. Prior to her current position, Dr. Fox spent 13 years working on issues of labor market adjustment, poverty, and social protection in transition economies, including China and Mongolia, the Baltic States, and Eastern Europe. Before that she researched poverty, inequality, and macroeconomic adjustment in Latin America. Recently she has published on the topics of poverty reduction and inclusive growth, the political economy of poverty reduction, and on employment, labor markets, and labor regulation, all with respect to Sub-Saharan Africa. She has also published in the areas of pension reform, reform of child welfare systems, social protection, public expenditures in the social sectors and poverty reduction, female-headed households and child welfare, stabilization policies and poverty reduction, the social costs of adjustment, and the economic history of poverty and inequality in Brazil. Dr. Fox received a PhD from Vanderbilt University. xiii xiv About the Authors Lucrecia Santibañez is an Education Economist at the RAND Corporation. Before joining RAND she held positions as Partner and Director of Education Studies at Fundación IDEA in Mexico City, a nonprofit, independent public policy analysis firm. She was also Professor of Public Policy at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) in Mexico City. Her work focuses on teacher incentives, schoolbased management programs, and teacher preparation programs. At RAND she is currently involved in the formative evaluation of Summer Learning Programs aimed at increasing learning for disadvantaged students, funded by the Wallace Foundation. She has coauthored books and chapters on teacher incentives and accountability, as well as early childhood development policies. She has received research grants as Principal Investigator or Co-Principal Investigator from Fundacion Mexico Unido, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Hewlett Foundation, and the Kellogg Foundation. Her international consulting experience includes projects for the World Bank; the Inter-American Development Bank; and the OECD in Cambodia, El Salvador, Lao PDR, Mexico, Mozambique, Peru, and Qatar. Dr. Santibañez received a PhD in education and an MA in economics, both from Stanford University. Vy Thao Nguyen is an Education Economist at the World Bank s Human Development Network, Education Unit. Her current work focuses on issues of inequalities in education. In her role as an economist, she also provides assistance to the development of the World Bank Group Education Strategy 2020, including a rigorous econometric-based review of the World Bank education portfolio. She has researched women s fertility and labor force participation, as well as financial market liberalization policies and development. Dr. Nguyen received a PhD in economics from American University, Washington, DC. Pierre André is Assistant Professor at the University of Cergy-Pontoise, near Paris. His research focuses on school enrollment decisions in developing countries and the political economy of development. Prior to joining the University of Cergy-Pontoise, he was a consultant in the Africa Region at the World Bank. Dr. André received a PhD from the Paris School of Economics in 2009. Abbreviations ADE Direct Support to Schools (abbreviation for Portuguese) EP1 Ensino Primário do 1º Grau (lower primary grades 1 5) EP2 Ensino Primário do 2º Grau (upper primary grades 6 7) ES1 Ensino Secundário do 1º Ciclo (lower secondary grades 8 10) ES2 Ensino Secundário do 2º Ciclo (upper secondary grades 11 12) GER gross enrollment rate GoM Government of Mozambique HE household enterprise IAF Inquérito aos Agregados Familiares INE Instituto Nacional de Estatística IOF Inquérito aos Orcamentos Familiares MEC Ministry of Education and Culture MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MOE Ministry of Education MSMEs micro, small, and medium enterprises Mt metical (Mozambique currency) NER net enrollment rate NPS National Panel Survey xv xvi Abbreviations PARPA PSIA SSA Plan of Action for the Reduction of Absolute Poverty (Portuguese) Poverty and Social Impact Analysis Sub-Saharan Africa CHAPTER 1 Introduction In 1994, after the end of the civil war and the first free elections, Mozambique was an extremely poor country with a decimated infrastructure, a weak economy, and fragile institutions. It has since been successful at restoring growth and improving welfare. The GDP per capita has been growing approximately 5 percent annually since 2006, 1 and the portion of the population living on less than US$1.25 per day (extreme poverty) declined from an estimated 81 percent in to 60 percent in Although Mozambique remains a poor country, much has improved in the last 20 years (see box 1.1). Sound economic policies have contributed to Mozambique s strong economic growth in the last two decades. Broad-based, labor-intensive private-sector growth was efficient at poverty reduction until 2003 (Fox et al. 2008). At the same time, investments in social and economic infrastructure extended access to public services, reduced welfare inequalities, and supported the livelihood of the average Mozambican. Since 2003, high growth has been sustained by a combination of natural resource extraction financed by foreign direct investment and sector service expansion, while the agricultural sector, which employs the majority of the labor force, has experienced slower growth. Income growth in rural areas, in which more than 60 percent of Mozambicans live, has been sluggish. The key 1 2 Education Reform in Mozambique Box 1.1 Mozambique At a Glance Mozambique is located on the east coast of southern Africa and is part of Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA). It is divided into 10 provinces (see box 1.2) with the capital in Maputo. Mozambique declared independence from Portugal in A prolonged civil war followed, lasting until The current population is 22 million, of which 46 percent is under 14 years of age. Only 3 percent of the population is over age 65. Thirty-eight percent of the population lives in urban areas. The country currently ranks 165th in the world on the Human Development Indicators index, with a value of (SSA average is 0.389). Life expectancy at birth is 42 years, one of the lowest in the world. The country has one of the highest infant mortality rates (115 per 1,000), as well as high child mortality (168 per 1,000) and HIV adult prevalence (11.5 percent). Sources: Focus Africa, World Development Indicators, indicators. HDI data from United Nations Development Programme, development challenge for Mozambique is to further accelerate the country s economic development by reshaping its growth patterns to benefit a larger segment of the population. The Education Challenge After winning the first multi-party election in 1994, the Mozambique Government faced an enormous education deficit. High absolute poverty levels and difficulties in accessing areas outside provincial capitals during the 20-year civil war caused enrollment to plummet, with gross enrollment in primary school at only 50 percent and net enrollment below 40 percent. Infrastructure was in very poor shape, and schools were completely absent in many rural areas. Schools often lacked inputs (teachers, books, supplies, and the like). Many teachers were not qualified to teach. The objective of Government policy since the end of the civil war has been to provide quality education for all with a focus on primary education. Government strategy focused on achieving universal primary education (EP1 and EP2; see box 1.3), primarily by expanding the infrastructure network and also by improving the efficiency of resource use. By 2004, Mozambique had done a heroic job of improving access to lower and upper primary schools through sustained investment in Introduction 3 Box 1.2 Map of Provinces in Mozambique Source: World Bank. education. Since 2000, the Government has allocated an average of 20 percent of revenue, about 5 percent of GDP, to the education sector (World Bank 2005). Between 2000 and 2003, the number of schools increased significantly, with the ad
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