13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No A METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITY PREPARES FOR THE WORST: İSTANBUL EARTHQUAKE MASTER PLAN Mesut PEKTAS

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13 th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Vancouver, B.C., Canada August 1-6, 2004 Paper No A METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITY PREPARES FOR THE WORST: İSTANBUL EARTHQUAKE MASTER PLAN Mesut PEKTAS 1 SUMMARY The Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul has commissioned a comprehensive earthquake master plan to be made in anticipation of a magnitude-7+ earthquake. The antecedents of the plan and its contents are described from a city official s perspective. INTRODUCTION In Turkey crafting the legal and financial instruments for disaster management is the responsibility of the central government. Yet, disasters and their impacts are local, and are best managed at the level where all stakeholders reside. The two major earthquakes that occurred in the Sea of Marmara region during 1999 have served as reminder to all local governments there that preparedness measures that extend beyond immediate post-disaster relief services must be examined and put into force. In response to a request from the Government of the Republic of Turkey, the Government of Japan decided to conduct The Study on A Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul Including Seismic Microzonation in the Republic of Turkey [1], and entrusted the study to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The Study Team organized by JICA conducted the study in the following steps. Step 1: Existing data collection, analysis and evaluation to identify the study issue Step 2: Site investigation on ground condition, population, building conditions, and others Step 3: GIS database development and analysis of data Step 4: Analysis of earthquake motion Step 5: Estimation of seismic hazard and damage Step 6: Compilation of hazard maps, seismic microzoning maps Step 7: Detailed examination on urban disaster prevention and mitigation plan This report was completed in December 2002, and has served as the background document for the plan that is described in this paper. Parts of this paper have been excerpted from [1]. 1 Deputy Secretary General, Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul The City and Its Earthquake Potential Istanbul city, which is located in the western part of Turkey, has been developed first as the capital city of the Eastern Roman Empire and then Ottoman Turkey for more than fifteen centuries. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Istanbul has continued to grow as one of the biggest cities in the Middle East, representing a center of economic, industrial and tourist destination of the modern Turkey. The city has a population of ten million today. Geologically, Turkey is located at the boundary area where the Arabian Plate and African Plate move north towards the Eurasian Plate. A large scale fault line called North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends more than 1,000 km long from east to west in the northern territory of Turkey and historically, many strong earthquakes have occurred along this fault line. In recent times (1939 and 1992), very strong earthquakes have occurred in Erzincan, a city that is situated in the eastern part of Turkey. More than 30 thousand died in the earthquake of 1939 while 700 people perished in There was heavy damage to property, including the collapse of a number of buildings and infrastructures. On August 17, 1999, an earthquake disaster called Kocaeli earthquake occurred around Izmit and Adapazari, located 90 and 125 km east from Istanbul, respectively. Recorded at a magnitude of 7.4, this earthquake caused tremendous damage to human lives and properties in the area. Another strong earthquake with M 7.2 occurred on November 12, 1999 along NAF near Düzce. More than 1000 people died or suffered serious injuries during that event. Seismologists have noted [2] that the epicenters of strong earthquakes seemingly migrate from east to west along the NAF and they point out the possibility of another big earthquake hitting Istanbul where the western edge of the NAF is situated. In order to manage the potential earthquake disaster in Istanbul, it is necessary to prepare a seismic disaster prevention/mitigation plan, emergency rescue plan and restoration plan of the earthquake stricken area from middle to long-term points of view. However, as of 1999 the Metropolitan Municipality did not have an integrated seismic disaster prevention/mitigation plan. Therefore, as a first step the Government of Turkey requested the Government of Japan to conduct an initializing study as part of a technical cooperation program. The task required a close and productive cooperation between the JICA research teams and human and information resources of the city administration. An administrative and a scientific advisory committee were created to provide guidance in the conduct of the project. Its scope covered all 27 metropolitan municipality districts plus the aggregated areas of Silivri, Büyük Çekmece and Çatalca that have effectively become incorporated into the greater city. In Figure 1 the study area is shown. RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE JICA STUDY The 650-page JICA report [1] is the first comprehensive document related to the earthquake disaster preparedness of an urban agglomeration in Turkey. It has provided an assessment of the current state of the city, analyzed the possible consequences of the scenario earthquake, and listed a wide range of recommendations for the follow-up stages including measures to strengthen vulnerable buildings and critical infrastructure components. Short and medium term measures included the following: (1) Retrofitting of Hospitals The total number of hospitals in the city is 635. These are built and managed by different entities such as national agencies, SSK, universities, the private sector, and the military. An earlier survey conducted on hospital buildings resistance against a high intensity earthquake for hospitals in Izmir and Istanbul had concluded that the structural capacity of the surveyed hospitals was quite vulnerable and retrofitting was recommended. Given the critical role played by hospitals in disaster situations this type of assessment and necessary retrofits were recommended with increased priority. Figure 1. The Study Area (2) Retrofitting of School Buildings A retrofitting project for school buildings in Istanbul has been started already but the implementation ratio is not very high. According to the JICA study, the total number of schools is 2,252, of which some 300 buildings were constructed using the new school building design standard established in The Study Team conducted a preliminary diagnosis of the earthquake resistance of two sample school buildings based on design drawings. The result showed that even a new building design standard was not enough to prevent pancake-like collapse of school buildings. Their review and retrofit were urgently urged. (3) Retrofitting of Public Facilities, City Hall, and Governmental Buildings Istanbul City Hall has now been completely retrofitted. This is a good example for a typical public facility. Functions of public facilities such as municipal city halls, district offices, fire stations, and governmental buildings must be maintained, and the facilities must be utilized as centers for emergency rescue operations, or as disaster management centers. The report suggested that earthquake resistance of existing public facilities should be checked, and necessary retrofitting or reconstruction plans should be implemented by relevant agencies. (4) Retrofitting of Bridges The study collected data on 480 bridges (but not the suspension bridges over the Straits of İstanbul) that was put into bridge inventories. As a result of the analysis, 24 bridges were calculated as having a higher possibility of collapse and two bridges constructed as viaduct structures were calculated as having a higher vulnerability to the earthquake. A prioritized retrofitting for these facilities was recommended. (5) Retrofitting of Port Facilities In the light of experience of the Kocaeli earthquake that affected the port facility of Izmit improvements in the deep sea port of Haydarpaşa were suggested. (6) Retrofitting of Lifelines In Istanbul City, urban utilities such as gas, water, electricity, sewage and telecommunication systems are operated by city-owned companies. Based on the feasibility study, an introduction of automatic shut down systems or the gas distribution network should be discussed. (7) Construction of Disaster Management Center The Disaster Management Centre of Istanbul City, code named AKOM, was constructed in 2001 and installation of the necessary equipment related to disaster information collection and dissemination systems has now been completed. Construction of another disaster management center is planned by the Governorship of Istanbul province. In order to manage a large-scale earthquake disaster, these centers should be networked effectively with district offices or other disaster-related offices by secure telecommunication systems. These telecommunication systems must be maintained and operated at the time of an earthquake disaster occurrence to collect damage information, dispatch necessary orders for rescue operations, and communicate with each related agency. Therefore, construction plans of disaster management centers, including the main centre, back-up centre, and district centre, should be discussed. (8) Campaign for Raising Awareness on Disaster Prevention The report concluded that an earthquake disaster prevention awareness campaign for citizens of Istanbul City should be held continuously through community-based information dissemination, rescue operation drills, and through the recognition of mutual help in cooperation with community organizations, NGOs, the municipal administration, and academic researchers. Medium- to long-term measures listed in the study included the following. (1) Master Plan for Earthquake Disaster Prevention Damage estimation and analysis of urban problem areas were conducted by the JICA Study. Structural problems of buildings were also analyzed. However, the study accuracy was still in the macro level, showing fairly detailed aspects of earthquake damage distribution covering the whole study area and recommendations for improvement of existing conditions for earthquake disaster management, including urban planning and institutional aspects. Based on these study results, a detailed earthquake disaster prevention plan such as district-wise plan for Istanbul City should be formulated. In this case, building statistics should be improved to assist in classifying more detailed categories for structures. Population data should also be improved as to clarify day time and night time variations. The report recommended that this master plan should be deeply related to future land-use zoning to secure enough open spaces, road networks, environmental protection areas and locations of public facilities. Detailed plans should be examined and formulated for the following: the location of evacuation sites and routes, review of road network priority for emergency operations, necessary emergency storage supplies, community participation for rescue operations, medical equipment emergency systems, and emergency communication systems. The İstanbul Earthquake Master Plan is in response to this recommendation. (2) Formulation of Urban Redevelopment Plan Aimed at Earthquake-Resistant City In addition to developing a detailed earthquake disaster prevention master plan, a redevelopment plan for higher damage estimated areas should be formulated based on a detailed area redevelopment plan as a model case. The methodology and concepts for this detailed area redevelopment plan should be prepared by joint collaborations between municipality and community organizations, with the approach of providing for the improvement of existing urban conditions to create an earthquake-resistant urban area. This detailed urban redevelopment plan should be applied to an area of extremely high population density on the European side first. JICA refrained from making concrete proposals in this regard because of their unfamiliarity with domestic legal framework. (3) Promotion of Research on Earthquake-Resistant Buildings Basic research on earthquake-resistant buildings including structure, material, and design standards should be promoted by the academic sector. If regulations for stronger building structures against earthquakes could be standardized in earthquake-prone areas, damage will be largely reduced. From this point of view, more research and recommendations concerning building structures and materials should be promoted by research institutes. Based on these activities, building code and design standards must be improved. The private sector engaged in housing should also be involved in these activities. (4) Establishment of Credit System for Earthquake-Resistant Housing A long-term credit system by the government should be discussed to enhance and provide incentives to the people living in earthquake hazard prone areas. Special low interest rates for this credit scheme should be prepared for this purpose. Also, property taxation should be reviewed and improved to help those engaged in housing and construction. (5) Institutional System Improvement for Disaster Management The JICA report correctly identified that the concept of disaster prevention should be introduced into the land-use system of the Development Act. The building code should mention other aspects, such as materials, and should cover comprehensive aspects regarding disaster prevention. A Disaster Law should introduce basic concepts of mitigation efforts that can be undertaken before a disaster occurs to reduce damage. Emergency aid regulation should include civic organizations and public relations on disaster information. The report emphasized the administrative measures necessary for an effective disaster mitigation policy, but its tools were not defined in any detail. METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITY PERSPECTIVE Municipal awareness of the heavy toll of a large magnitude earthquake and its immense consequences had led to the creation, in 2000, of the Disaster Coordination Center for the Metropolitan Municipality. Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Disaster Coordination Center (AKOM is its Turkish acronym) was established to address the necessity to establish a communication channel within the municipality, by an order from the mayor s office and authorization by the Municipal Assembly. The initial members of the centre were the fire department, health department, the water and sewage corporation and the gas distribution corporation. Planning, mapping, and other departments joined later to form the current organization. The object of AKOM is to coordinate tasks among organizations within Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The organization structure of AKOM is shown in Figure 2. In AKOM, organizations are included by importance, unlike the service groups of the Governorship Disaster Management Centre. The chairman of AKOM is the deputy secretary general of the metropolitan municipality. The vice chairman of AKOM is the department head of the fire brigade. Related municipal companies are included via the shareholders department. Some key organizations in AKOM, such as water or gas vending companies are also represented in the Disaster Management Center that has been created within the Istanbul governor s office. AKOM has its own new building equipped with state-ofthe-art technology. Currently AKOM's operational budget comes from the fire brigade, but AKOM will eventually have its own budget. Advisor of AKOM Chairman Department of Fire Brigade Department of Health Department of Transportation AKOM Chairman Dep. Sec. Gen. AKOM Vice Chair: Department Head of Fire Brigade AKOM Director Department of Engineering Department of Share Holders Prime Ministry Defence Secretary Directorate of External Relations Directorate of Social and Administrative Affairs Directorate of Soil and Earthquake Research Directorate of Road Maintenance and Repair Water and Sewage Management Corporation (ISKI) Gas Distribtion Corporation (IGDAS) Figure 2. Organizational Structure of AKOM The above diagram shows that AKOM is a post-disaster response tool, and has no mitigation role. This function was to be handed to special units formed as per the recommendations of the Master Plan. CITY GOVERNMENT DECISION Preparing for, and coping with, any form of risk is faced with uncertainty and can be controversial and complex. Already, the yet-to-occur earthquake near Istanbul has become accepted as fact, and a popular subject of discussion among scientists and the public. While no earthquake scenario is intended as any form of prediction, and the actual event may show substantial differences from the anticipated event if it happens, it serves as a basis for planning and development of preparedness measures. With the submission of the JICA report we resolved to have a plan that would guide the metropolitan municipality government towards its realization. Many of the issues raised by the background report are indeed beyond the competence of the authority of the municipality, and require the involvement and active support of the national government. The drawing up of the master plan that would serve as a road map detailing the policy options for each problem area appeared feasible with the active participation of four universities that would form a consultancy group, and organize the study was the option we adopted. One institution from Ankara, Middle East Technical University, and three from Istanbul, namely Istanbul Technical, Boğaziçi and Yildiz Technical Universities were engaged as research resources for the master plan. Contract negotiations were initiated during the Fall of 2002, and the work got underway in January 2003, shortly after the JICA report became available. CONTENTS OF THE MASTER PLAN The scope of Earthquake Master Plan for Istanbul comprises work to be done in the following areas: Assessment of current situation Seismic assessment and rehabilitation of existing buildings Urban planning issues Legal issues Financial issues Educational issues Social issues Risk and disaster management issues This list would be complemented by specific programs aimed at planning of the activities in these fields, preparation of implementation programs, and identification of the responsibilities and responsible authorities for earthquake disaster mitigation works to be carried out in Istanbul. Taking into account the high seismic risk of Istanbul and findings of the preceding study for Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) under Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) auspices, preparation of a master plan for Istanbul which will include the assessment of existing building stock, infrastructure, urban and public facilities in the light of available geological and geotechnical data, the determination of short, medium and long term measures and strategies for earthquake preparedness of Istanbul, the identification of legal, technical, financial and social responsibilities, including implementation plans at selected pilot project areas was requested by IMM. An important aspect to be covered by the Master Plan is decided to be the assessment of seismic vulnerability of existing building stock in Istanbul, the development of seismic retrofitting methods and the determination of technical, social, administrative, legal and financial measures to be taken in order to be able to implement such methods. In the Master Plan the works to be done in these fields are examined and the recommendations about the measures to be taken are given. Earthquake disaster mitigation efforts for Istanbul should be multi-disciplinary and have a broad vision. These efforts will be pioneering examples of Urban Development Projects and Local Transformation Programs, or total Action Planning for Turkey. The four universities which took part in the project have
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