© 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner Economic Modelling: Quantifying risks and uncertainty for unconventional O&G projects

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© 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner Economic Modelling: Quantifying risks and uncertainty for unconventional O&G projects

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  © 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner  Preferred partner  Economic Modelling: Quantifying risks and uncertainty for unconventional O&G projects James Leven | Aker Solutions, AustraliaThomas Forde & Ravan Gulmammadov | Aker Solutions, Oslo  © 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner  Unconventional projects are unconventional! ■ Cannot call on conventionalknowledge or experience ■ Risks can be less constrainedthan for conventional projects ■ Need to integrate Subsurfacegeoscience, Drilling andEngineering in a way that is notconventional ■ Gas is a relatively low value,low energy density commodity ■ Return on investment fromunconventional projects tendsto be a long term prospect 4 Sept 2013Good Oil ConferenceSlide 2  © 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner  Acknowledgements Three Economic models: ■ DMITRE Report - Roadmap for Unconventional Gas Projects in SA ■ Economic Modelling by Core Energy ■  ACOLA Report  – Engineering Energy ■ Financial Analysis of Shale Gas by Prof. John Burgess ■ Economic viability of Shale Gas production in the Marcellus Shale,R.J. Duman, Thesis - Michigan Technological University, 2012 4 Sept 2013Good Oil ConferenceSlide 3  © 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner  Stochastic Approach 4 Sept 2013Good Oil ConferenceSlide 4  © 2012 Aker Solutions Preferred partner  2732,2922 0,00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,91,0-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 NPV (10^6 USD)    Analysis 1 Analysis 2    Probabilistic   Deterministic
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